Trump Could Cost Republicans Control Of The Senate Until Next Decade

Republican Senator Steve Daines, chair of the GOP's campaign arm, said on a podcast this past week that control of the Senate for the rest of the decade could all hinge on the 2024 election - and Republicans are in bad shape. While he didn't specifically name Donald Trump as a cause for concern, it is glaringly obvious that Daines and other Republicans know that poison at the top of the ticket in 2024 is going to benefit Democrats all down the rest of the ballot, and they may not get another shot at control until the year 2030. Ring of Fire's Farron Cousins explains what's happening.

Link - https://www.businessinsider.com/republican-senate-minority-rest-decade-nrsc-chair-steve-daines-2023-3

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*This transcript was generated by a third-party transcription software company, so please excuse any typos.

There is a very good chance that Donald Trump's presence on the 2024 ballot could cost Republicans the Senate not just in 2024, but it could relegate conservatives to the minority in the Senate for the remainder of this decade. Here's why that is, and by the way, this is actually coming from Republican Senator Steve Danes. He didn't mention Trump. I threw that part in there because that's pretty much what he's getting at. But Republican Senator Steve Danes, who is now the chair of the campaign arm for the Senate Democrats, Rick Scott was kind of booted out of that position after losing a lot of money. But Danes recently said, uh, we either deliver a majority in 24, or we are in the minority as Republican senate for the rest of the decade. That has profound consequences.

So why is Steve Danes saying that? Well, first and foremost in 2024, there will be more Democrats up for reelection in the Senate than Republicans. So Democrats have more seats to defend just like Republicans did this last time. And it's harder to hang on to all your seats when you're, you have to defend more than the other team. You also have to spend more to defend more. So that's a problem. Republicans had it in 2022. Democrats face that issue in 2024, and then in 2026 it's pretty much an even split because that's so weird. That's just how it works out every two years when we have these Senate elections, um, first you have the Republicans who have a majority of seats to defend, then you have the Democrats who have a majority of seats to defend. Then it's pretty much even with each side defending the same number of seats and then the cycle repeats itself.

It is a pattern. I don't know how this country fell into that pattern, but it's the way things work. So if Republicans cannot take the Senate back in 2024, they're basically put at a disadvantage in both 2026 and 2028. And it wouldn't be until the 2030 election where Democrats would have more seats up to defend and that would be the Republicans opening. And if Republicans failed to do that, it wouldn't be until 2036 where they stood the likelihood of taking back the Senate. So what does this have to do with Donald Trump? He's not running for Senate, is he? Well, no, he's not running for Senate. But we've already seen what having Donald Trump at the top, at the top of the ticket does to the rest of the party. And see, this is the part that Steve Danes wouldn't say out loud, but I will cuz I'm not a Republican and I want to embarrass you by telling the truth. Donald Trump is toxic for the Republican party.

His presence at the top of the ticket is going to draw more moderates and likely more women to go to the polls to vote against him. And while they're there, they're probably gonna go ahead and vote down some of the other, uh, oppressive jack asses all the way down the ticket. We have seen it happen in recent elections. We saw it in 2018, even when Trump's name was not on the ticket. We definitely saw it in 2020. So if Trump gets back on the top of that ticket in 2024, Republicans have a very real problem and it's a problem that could cost them not just that election, but the next six years of elections.